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VANTAGE POINT:
Pivotal Moment

Welcome to another edition of Vantage Point, the quarterly economic and markets outlook from the Global Economics and Investment Analysis (GEIA) team.

Featured Insights

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THE ALTA REPORT

A quarterly compilation of BNY Mellon perspectives derived from our unique vantage point at the intersection of markets.

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AI Equity Impact: Already Irrational?

The market may surge in the next few years as AI benefits become clearer and the market prices more of the impact.

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Inflation pressures may grow from Red Sea actions

Chronically constricted Red Sea shipping lanes could raise the cost of Europe-Mid-East-Asia trade and slow the...

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Will Treasury yields get guidance from Powell?

Since the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) July minutes release, US Treasury yields have been rising.

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Macro Update on Market Volatility

Silicon Valley Bank collapse, explained.
 
 

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Japan Macro Update: Yield Curve Control Recalibration Necessary for Policy Sustainability

The Bank of Japan’s experiment with Yield Curve Control and asset purchases is set to wind down. The current framework...

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China in 2023: Anatomy of a Messy
Re-opening
 

After an annus horribilis, we expect China’s economy to experience a messy but much needed growth recovery by mid-2023...

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Monthly Market Roundup

 

June 2024

May 2024 Overview

In May, cross-asset performance was generally positive with equities, fixed income, and broad commodity returns all in green territory. Behind the surface, however, May was a month of two halves. The month began positively, with markets rebounding from previous declines. Growth expectations stabilized and inflation worries lessened as US nonfarm payroll growth moderated. US sovereign bond yields declined, boosting equity markets, especially high beta/high duration indices like the NASDAQ and small caps. Chinese equities also surged due to improved expectations about economic prospects and stimulus measures, while the US dollar weakened against major currencies, and energy prices dropped. Mid-month, the market dynamic shifted as earlier optimism waned somewhat. The perceived improvement in global growth stalled, and inflation worries reemerged, together with perceptions that central banks may not deliver the shallow path of rate cuts priced in by the market. Global equity markets fell, with Chinese and European indices underperforming. Fixed income performance was also negative, mostly driven by renewed upward pressure on government bond yields.

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Points of View

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Points of View: On the cusp of a productivity boom?

The promise of AI (and other reasons for optimism)

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Points of View: Economic outlook, central bank stances diverge

Divergent inflation and growth dynamics have and will continue to position major central banks along contrasting...

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Japan: Yen in a Free Fall, but a Policy Pivot is Nearing

Describes how global policy divergence and other macro-drivers of large-scale Yen depreciation are still intact, but...

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Elevated Sino-US Tension over Taiwan to Accelerate Economic De-Coupling

The Taiwan related tension may not go away quickly with the upcoming quinquennial transition in China and US mid-term...

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Food Price Shocks: Macro and Investment Implications

This note details our latest analysis of prolonged food price shocks and their impact on macro and investments.

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Bear Markets: More Pain, Then Gain

The history of bear markets makes for gloomy reading. However, this brief note focuses on what we might expect once the...

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Don’t Blame China for Inflation Damage in the U.S.

The state of global supply chains are widely seen as heavily influenced by developments in China. While it is true that...

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A Deep Dive into QT

In this third note of three, we review the arguments behind these opposing views in the previous two, in the hope to...

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Could QT lead to a steeper yield curve?

In the first note in a series of three on QT we argued that QT will most likely contribute to a flattening of the yield...

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The Impact of QT on Financial Markets

We have written extensively on our expectations for future rate hikes and the peak in US rates. In this paper, the...

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Yield Curve Inversion... This Time Is Not Different

We believe the possibility of a recession in the US over the coming two to three years is increasing. As such, we take...

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Global Economics and Investment Analysis Group

Meet the minds behind the research.

Shamik Dhar

Chief Economist

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Aninda Mitra

Head of Asia Macro & Investment Strategy

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Sebastian Vismara

Senior Financial Economist

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Jake Jolly, CFA

Head of Investment Analysis

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Matt Forester

Head of Dynamic Portfolio Management

Keith Collier, CFA

Head of Asset Allocation Research

Bethany Woodcock

Emerging Leaders Program Rotational Analyst

Ryan Milgrim, CFA

Senior Research Analyst

MARK-487914-2024-01-24