Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility

Market Insights

Now Available

VANTAGE POINT:
Shifting Tides

Welcome to another edition of Vantage Point, the quarterly economic and markets outlook from the Global Economics and Investment Analysis (GEIA) team.

Featured Insights

AI Equity Impact: Already Irrational?

The market may surge in the next few years as AI benefits become clearer and the market prices more of the impact.

Read More

Inflation pressures may grow from Red Sea actions

Chronically constricted Red Sea shipping lanes could raise the cost of Europe-Mid-East-Asia trade and slow the...

Read More

US Equity Outlook: Another Magnificent Year?

2023 was far better than feared for US equities, albeit performance was heavily concentrated. What does 2024 have on...

Read More

Will Treasury yields get guidance from Powell?

Since the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) July minutes release, US Treasury yields have been rising.

Read More

When to extend?

The time to consider extending fixed income duration is now thanks to attractive income returns, potential for price...

Read More

Macro Update on Market Volatility

Silicon Valley Bank collapse, explained.
 
 

Read More

Japan Macro Update: Yield Curve Control Recalibration Necessary for Policy Sustainability

The Bank of Japan’s experiment with Yield Curve Control and asset purchases is set to wind down. The current framework...

Read More

China in 2023: Anatomy of a Messy
Re-opening
 

After an annus horribilis, we expect China’s economy to experience a messy but much needed growth recovery by mid-2023...

Read More

 

Monthly Market Roundup

 

March 2023

February flip

  • After a strong start to 2023, markets reversed in February across stocks and bonds.
  • US and European inflation, namely services inflation, remained elevated and is proving to be a tougher job than expected for central banks.
  • China's re-opening impulse was dampened by geopolitical issues (the balloon incident) and profit-taking.
  • The US 10-Year Treasury yield breached the 4% mark, and yield curve inversion was at its deepest since the 1980s (nearly -1%).
  • Global equities fell 2-3% for the month, led by a pull-back in China. The S&P 500 fell by 2.4% given broad sector declines, though the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 indices lost less than 2%.
  • European equities fared better than its global counterparts amidst improving business confidence and consumer sentiment, as well as lower energy prices.
  • Credit held up reasonably well, commodities continued their steady slide, and the USD re-couped its past few months of losses.
Find out more
 

Points of View

Points of View: On the cusp of a productivity boom?

The promise of AI (and other reasons for optimism)

Read More

Points of View: Japan's Yield Curve Control – Bidding A Long Goodbye

Inflation persistence and the weakening Yen are unlikely to result in a dismantling of the Bank of Japan's Yield Curve...

Read More

Points of View: Economic outlook, central bank stances diverge

Divergent inflation and growth dynamics have and will continue to position major central banks along contrasting...

Read More

De-dollarization is Not Imminent, But the Debate Will Linger

Every few years, market doubts about the U.S.’ macro excesses and foreign policy follies crop up and raises the specter...

Read More

Japan: Yen in a Free Fall, but a Policy Pivot is Nearing

Describes how global policy divergence and other macro-drivers of large-scale Yen depreciation are still intact, but...

Read More

Elevated Sino-US Tension over Taiwan to Accelerate Economic De-Coupling

The Taiwan related tension may not go away quickly with the upcoming quinquennial transition in China and US mid-term...

Read More

Food Price Shocks: Macro and Investment Implications

This note details our latest analysis of prolonged food price shocks and their impact on macro and investments.

Read More

Bear Markets: More Pain, Then Gain

The history of bear markets makes for gloomy reading. However, this brief note focuses on what we might expect once the...

Read More

Don’t Blame China for Inflation Damage in the U.S.

The state of global supply chains are widely seen as heavily influenced by developments in China. While it is true that...

Read More

A Deep Dive into QT

In this third note of three, we review the arguments behind these opposing views in the previous two, in the hope to...

Read More

Could QT lead to a steeper yield curve?

In the first note in a series of three on QT we argued that QT will most likely contribute to a flattening of the yield...

Read More

The Impact of QT on Financial Markets

We have written extensively on our expectations for future rate hikes and the peak in US rates. In this paper, the...

Read More

Yield Curve Inversion... This Time Is Not Different

We believe the possibility of a recession in the US over the coming two to three years is increasing. As such, we take...

Read More

Global Economics and Investment Analysis Group

Meet the minds behind the research.

Shamik Dhar

Chief Economist

FIND OUT MORE

Aninda Mitra

Head of Asia Macro & Investment Strategy

FIND OUT MORE

Sebastian Vismara

Senior Financial Economist

FIND OUT MORE

Jake Jolly, CFA

Head of Investment Analysis

FIND OUT MORE

Sonia Meskin

Head of U.S. Macro

FIND OUT MORE
 

MARK-487914-2024-01-24