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Shifting Tides

Welcome to another edition of Vantage Point, the quarterly economic and markets outlook from the Global Economics and Investment Analysis (GEIA) team.

Featured Insights

AI Equity Impact: Already Irrational?

The market may surge in the next few years as AI benefits become clearer and the market prices more of the impact.

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Inflation pressures may grow from Red Sea actions

Chronically constricted Red Sea shipping lanes could raise the cost of Europe-Mid-East-Asia trade and slow the...

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US Equity Outlook: Another Magnificent Year?

2023 was far better than feared for US equities, albeit performance was heavily concentrated. What does 2024 have on...

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Will Treasury yields get guidance from Powell?

Since the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) July minutes release, US Treasury yields have been rising.

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When to extend?

The time to consider extending fixed income duration is now thanks to attractive income returns, potential for price...

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Macro Update on Market Volatility

Silicon Valley Bank collapse, explained.

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Japan Macro Update: Yield Curve Control Recalibration Necessary for Policy Sustainability

The Bank of Japan’s experiment with Yield Curve Control and asset purchases is set to wind down. The current framework...

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China in 2023: Anatomy of a Messy

After an annus horribilis, we expect China’s economy to experience a messy but much needed growth recovery by mid-2023...

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Monthly Market Roundup


March 2023

February flip

  • After a strong start to 2023, markets reversed in February across stocks and bonds.
  • US and European inflation, namely services inflation, remained elevated and is proving to be a tougher job than expected for central banks.
  • China's re-opening impulse was dampened by geopolitical issues (the balloon incident) and profit-taking.
  • The US 10-Year Treasury yield breached the 4% mark, and yield curve inversion was at its deepest since the 1980s (nearly -1%).
  • Global equities fell 2-3% for the month, led by a pull-back in China. The S&P 500 fell by 2.4% given broad sector declines, though the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 indices lost less than 2%.
  • European equities fared better than its global counterparts amidst improving business confidence and consumer sentiment, as well as lower energy prices.
  • Credit held up reasonably well, commodities continued their steady slide, and the USD re-couped its past few months of losses.
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Points of View

Points of View: On the cusp of a productivity boom?

The promise of AI (and other reasons for optimism)

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Points of View: Japan's Yield Curve Control – Bidding A Long Goodbye

Inflation persistence and the weakening Yen are unlikely to result in a dismantling of the Bank of Japan's Yield Curve...

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Points of View: Economic outlook, central bank stances diverge

Divergent inflation and growth dynamics have and will continue to position major central banks along contrasting...

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De-dollarization is Not Imminent, But the Debate Will Linger

Every few years, market doubts about the U.S.’ macro excesses and foreign policy follies crop up and raises the specter...

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Japan: Yen in a Free Fall, but a Policy Pivot is Nearing

Describes how global policy divergence and other macro-drivers of large-scale Yen depreciation are still intact, but...

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Elevated Sino-US Tension over Taiwan to Accelerate Economic De-Coupling

The Taiwan related tension may not go away quickly with the upcoming quinquennial transition in China and US mid-term...

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Food Price Shocks: Macro and Investment Implications

This note details our latest analysis of prolonged food price shocks and their impact on macro and investments.

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Bear Markets: More Pain, Then Gain

The history of bear markets makes for gloomy reading. However, this brief note focuses on what we might expect once the...

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Don’t Blame China for Inflation Damage in the U.S.

The state of global supply chains are widely seen as heavily influenced by developments in China. While it is true that...

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A Deep Dive into QT

In this third note of three, we review the arguments behind these opposing views in the previous two, in the hope to...

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Could QT lead to a steeper yield curve?

In the first note in a series of three on QT we argued that QT will most likely contribute to a flattening of the yield...

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The Impact of QT on Financial Markets

We have written extensively on our expectations for future rate hikes and the peak in US rates. In this paper, the...

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Yield Curve Inversion... This Time Is Not Different

We believe the possibility of a recession in the US over the coming two to three years is increasing. As such, we take...

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Global Economics and Investment Analysis Group

Meet the minds behind the research.

Shamik Dhar

Chief Economist


Aninda Mitra

Head of Asia Macro & Investment Strategy


Sebastian Vismara

Senior Financial Economist


Jake Jolly, CFA

Head of Investment Analysis


Sonia Meskin

Head of U.S. Macro