Featured Insights
Will Treasury yields get guidance from Powell?
Since the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) July minutes release, US Treasury yields have been rising.
When to extend?
The time to consider extending fixed income duration is now thanks to attractive income returns, potential for price...
Learning from earnings
Q4 earnings faced a low bar and largely underwhelmed, despite modestly beating expectations. The biggest takeaway is...
Does the February USD rebound have legs?
Declining US inflation and positive growth surprises out of the euro area and China contributed to US dollar weakness...
Value's run is not done
Investors should resist assuming that value’s recent performance was a one-off fluke and that the 2020s will be a...
Does the fall in M2 have implications for prices?
Over a longer period, the relationship between M2, its velocity and inflation has been unstable.
Japan Macro Update: Yield Curve Control Recalibration Necessary for Policy Sustainability
The Bank of Japan’s experiment with Yield Curve Control and asset purchases is set to wind down. The current framework...
China in 2023: Anatomy of a Messy
Re-opening
After an annus horribilis, we expect China’s economy to experience a messy but much needed growth recovery by mid-2023...
The pain in the equity market is likely not over
The market expects the inflation problem to be sorted out by a shallow recession and loosening monetary policy in 2023....
Monthly Market Roundup
March 2023
February flip
- After a strong start to 2023, markets reversed in February across stocks and bonds.
- US and European inflation, namely services inflation, remained elevated and is proving to be a tougher job than expected for central banks.
- China's re-opening impulse was dampened by geopolitical issues (the balloon incident) and profit-taking.
- The US 10-Year Treasury yield breached the 4% mark, and yield curve inversion was at its deepest since the 1980s (nearly -1%).
- Global equities fell 2-3% for the month, led by a pull-back in China. The S&P 500 fell by 2.4% given broad sector declines, though the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 indices lost less than 2%.
- European equities fared better than its global counterparts amidst improving business confidence and consumer sentiment, as well as lower energy prices.
- Credit held up reasonably well, commodities continued their steady slide, and the USD re-couped its past few months of losses.
Points of View
Points of View: Economic outlook, central bank stances diverge
Divergent inflation and growth dynamics have and will continue to position major central banks along contrasting...
Re-assessing the China Rebound
China’s April monthly activity fell short of expectations across the board with economy wide prices eased further, with...
US Technical Default: Low Chance, High Impact
At this stage, investors deem the risk of the debt ceiling not being raised in time to be low, but the consequences of...
De-dollarization is Not Imminent, But the Debate Will Linger
Every few years, market doubts about the U.S.’ macro excesses and foreign policy follies crop up and raises the specter...
What’s the Fed to do?
Recent stresses in the global financial systems, albeit generally confined to its weakest links, carry an increased...
US inflation momentum slows in October
US October Consumer Price Index (CPI) was weaker than expected in both headline and core. The deceleration in core...
Japan: Yen in a Free Fall, but a Policy Pivot is Nearing
Describes how global policy divergence and other macro-drivers of large-scale Yen depreciation are still intact, but...
Elevated Sino-US Tension over Taiwan to Accelerate Economic De-Coupling
The Taiwan related tension may not go away quickly with the upcoming quinquennial transition in China and US mid-term...
Food Price Shocks: Macro and Investment Implications
This note details our latest analysis of prolonged food price shocks and their impact on macro and investments.
Bear Markets: More Pain, Then Gain
The history of bear markets makes for gloomy reading. However, this brief note focuses on what we might expect once the...
Don’t Blame China for Inflation Damage in the U.S.
The state of global supply chains are widely seen as heavily influenced by developments in China. While it is true that...
A Deep Dive into QT
In this third note of three, we review the arguments behind these opposing views in the previous two, in the hope to...
Could QT lead to a steeper yield curve?
In the first note in a series of three on QT we argued that QT will most likely contribute to a flattening of the yield...
The Impact of QT on Financial Markets
We have written extensively on our expectations for future rate hikes and the peak in US rates. In this paper, the...
Yield Curve Inversion... This Time Is Not Different
We believe the possibility of a recession in the US over the coming two to three years is increasing. As such, we take...
Global Economics and Investment Analysis Group
Meet the minds behind the research.
MARK-179764-2021-03-26
